Archive for August, 2007

The Race To 1,000,000 RSS Subscribers

Friday, August 3rd, 2007

RSS IconWhich blog will be the first to claim 1,000,000 subscribers? Only time will tell. Perhaps, we may never know exactly when the first blog does reach 1 million RSS subscribers. One may have already, although it is highly unlikely. Of the top 10 blogs listed on Technorati, only TechCrunch and Daily Kos publish their RSS readership numbers (from what I can see). For this reason, we may never know who will be first to reach the magic mark.

Here is the Technorati top 10:

  1. Engadget
  2. Boing Boing
  3. Gizmodo
  4. TechCrunch
  5. Huffington Post
  6. Lifehacker
  7. Ars Technica
  8. Daily Kos
  9. PostSecret
  10. TMZ

Keep in mind that these blogs are NOT ranked by RSS readership, but rather by Technorati Authority level.

Once again, the mystery surrounding web statistics and traffic numbers manifests itself. Why all the secrecy? Why the need to conceal? Quite honestly these blogs should be proud of their success and top 10 ranking.

Blog networks seem to be very fickle about their numbers. Weblogs, Inc. and Gawker* own 3 of the top 10 blogs and control many other notables including Kotaku, Joystiq, Valleywag, and AutoBlog. Nevertheless, they choose not to showcase their RSS numbers. I assume it’s like war - you don’t want to give away your position to the enemy. Meh… I think it’s a pretty lame excuse.

The independent bloggers have no reason not to publish their numbers. I would even wager that new visitors are more likely to add a given feed if they see a large RSS readership number. In other words, it may persuade people to follow the crowd and be in the know (excuse the cliches).

Getting back to the original topic, it will be interesting to see who will be the first to break the 1 million mark, if we do indeed ever see it. The rivalry and competition of the blogosphere is almost laughable. Having said that, it also makes it extremely difficult to track the progress of the Internet’s top blogs.

*Please note that Gawker does post traffic numbers, but not RSS stats.

Will eBay Ever Be Caught?

Thursday, August 2nd, 2007

eBay logoeBay has been at the top for a long, long time. It is one of the few to have successfully weathered the dot-com crash of the late 90s and early 2000s. In doing so, it has established itself as the premiere online auction spot. Ask anyone to name an online auction service. Chances are they will name eBay 99 times out of 100.

Why has the company been so successful? Why hasn’t any other auction site been able to make a run at eBay? After all, an auction is not sophisticated technology. The underlying concept itself has been around for centuries, perhaps even milleniums. The reason eBay has been at the top for so long is because of the Network Effect. Please read the preceding post to gain a full understanding of the rest of this post.

So what is it going to take for someone to challenge eBay (if indeed it is possible)? eBay must have an Achilles’ heel………. right? I sure hope so. Anytime a monopoly emerges, the best interest of the consumer is in jeopardy.

The way I see it, some company is going to have to pour a ton of money into a killer auction app to have a fighting chance against eBay. Even then, I’m not so sure the giant can be beaten. eBay isn’t trying to create a market. eBay is the market.

Anyone have any idea how eBay can be conquered? Or what it might take to do so?

What Google Needs To Do Next

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

There are two things that Google needs to do in the next year to maintain its current momentum and market position:

  1. Reinvent itself.
  2. Explore new revenue channels. 

Yes indeed, Google needs to reinvent itself. People like to cheer for the underdog. GoogleGoogle logo used to be in that position. It is no longer the case. Due to its control and substantial market share, Google is now the big kid on the block. With this dominating presence comes a certain level of community backlash and disapproval. Microsoft experienced this and continues to do so.

Google has always had a habit of not only meeting expectations, but also exceeding them by a wide margin. Product launches have caused phenomenal buzz. Product quality has been second to none. Google needs to continue this tradition to be successful and well-liked by the Internet community. Marketing can only go so far. The products must speak for themselves. The lack of innovation, launches, and recent news (acquisition aside) has put the company in a stagnant position. I am not being critical - I am just making an observation. Having said that, I think that big things are in the works. I expect to see a full office suite (obviously), as well as a surprise in the coming months. A social network? A Google browser? A Google wi-fi network? I don’t know, but I have high hopes.

Secondly, Google needs to rethink its revenue model. Putting all their eggs in one basket has worked well for them up until now. Increased competition, click fraud, and lack of diversification are all now working against the company. Something like 98% of Google’s revenue is derived from advertising. This is not sustainable over the long term. The company needs to explore alternatives. Who would have ever thought Rome would fall? What about Enron? The big guy is never at the top forever. Nevertheless, things can be done to hedge against a collapse. For Google, this starts with revenue diversification and perhaps even an overhaul of the current AdWords/AdSense system.

If Google is able to reinvent itself and adopt new revenue channels, I think it has the opportunity to stay on top longer than it would otherwise. I have confidence that the current management team will make the right decisions. Although I doubt any of them read this blog, I hope that they are thinking the same things as I. It would be a pity for Google to run the same course as Microsoft.